Britain needs to commit to European elections which must take place between 23 and 26 May this year, 2019.
Britain has three choices:
- To leave without a deal with the EU before May 22 –this option has been ruled out for now
- To opt out of the European elections making Brexit inevitable
- To participate in European elections and reconsider the Brexit deal
After committing to European elections, MPs then have two choices:
- Call a general election because Labour and Conservative leadership is poor and inconsistent.
- Have another referendum on membership of the EU, that is another people’s vote.
Leave Campaign consistently lied about the impact of Brexit and they still have no plan for life in Britain, post-Brexit.
Brexiteers want to leave the EU because they don’t like the regulation but they have no vision for a different Britain and the Conservatives have not yet found a solution to the current stalemate.
Leadership of the Conservative and Labour parties is poor and Brexit is a defining moment in the career not just of every politician in Westminster but more importantly of every citizen of the United Kingdom. Brexit is the defining moment of my generation.
Brexit has divided Britain and made us a laughing stock in Europe. French may well continue to block EU/UK negotiations. They have a track record in doing this. Think of the Iraq War and Tony Blair’s attempts to get a UN resolution.
Analysis: Theresa May’s Twelve Red Lines
- Providing certainty and a vote in Parliament – immediate fail, we have not yet left the EU because there is no consensus in Westminster about how to do this and the votes have been indicative votes. Theresa May did not want to give Parliament decision-making powers but she now has to. Parliament is sovereign, not the executive, i.e. the government.
- Taking control of our own laws – Parliament is already sovereign in the UK and Mrs May does not want the European Court of Justice to have jurisdiction over British laws. As a member of the EU we have another Parliament of 27 member states to help manage trade, climate change, agriculture, fisheries and food and an EU court of human rights.
- Strengthening the union – the UK should remain united as four countries on one island and we should remain in the EU. There is no conflict or need to choose between the two but if forced, Scotland may leave the UK in order to remain in the EU. Scotland is very likely to call another independence referendum and to negotiate membership with the EU if the rest of the UK leaves it.
Protecting our strong and historic ties with Ireland and preventing a hard border – peace in Ireland is of paramount importance and so is power-sharing between unionists and republicans. This is fragile as evidenced by the suspension of Stormont’s Parliament in January 2017. Stormont, Northern Ireland’s Parliament, was suspended when Martin McGuiness resigned over the Renewable Heat Initiative (RHI)
If Brexit goes through, this deadlock will become even more entrenched and Stormont may be dissolved altogether, returning Northern Ireland to direct rule by Westminster. DUP unionists may prefer to be ruled by Westminster than by Sinn Fein and they have a majority of one in Stormont.
4. Maintaining the common travel area with the Republic of Ireland means the UK will have a land border with the EU.
5. Controlled migration – immigration will continue but the hostile environment will get worse and we will simply attract less educated migrants who will contribute less to the UK economy.
6. Guaranteeing people who’ve moved (into the UK and to the EU) the right to remain in the country of their choice.
7. Protecting worker’s rights – the European Working Time D
8. Quit the EU single market membership – Mrs May does not want to adhere to the EU’s four freedoms including free movement of labour, goods, services and capital. If we remain in the EU, UK courts will continue to sit under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.
9. Quit full customs union membership – Mrs May does not want Britain to be part of the Common Commercial Policy nor to be bound by the Common External Tariff. Mrs May wants a customs agreement with the EU on her terms. Britain currently has to apply the same tariffs as the rest of the EU. If we don’t do this, we’ll need to set up time-consuming bilateral trade agreements like Canada and we’ll lose our competitive advantage, particularly in the City of London and our financial industries who may move to France or Germany. Securing new trade agreements with other countries outside the EU – economics will trump human rights and social justice.
10. A deal for science and tech – continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research, and technology initiatives. From space exploration and clean energy to medical technologies, research should continue but the best brains may no longer choose to move to Britain.
11. Cooperation on fighting crime and terrorism – The EU has an international police force to fight terrorism across borders and share information. As a previous Home Secretary, Mrs May should take seriously the significant threat of terrorism in Ireland and from outside powers both within and beyond the EU.
12. A ‘phased’ agreement beyond 2019 – Mrs May is already in penalty time and there is no agreement about a way forward in Parliament.
My conclusion is that we need new leadership of the Conservatives and Labour and a general election. This may result in another People’s Vote if there is an independent inquiry first into the Leave Campaign’s policy-making, not simply their electoral fraud including expenses.